The alcoholic goes through a similar experience, but the fascinating thing about alcoholism is that it may often be difficult to definitively establish that a certain individual is an alcoholic in every circumstance. The alcoholic can generally offer a better explanation than the betting systems promote when they are charged, since there is no -.141 + -.141 = -.282 comparable statement that can be presented to instantly establish the accuser’s case in the betting systems.
The alcoholic is eager to avoid becoming an alcoholic since it implies that he will be able to continue drinking. The proponent of betting systems badly wants to be correct because it will allow him to not only gamble indefinitely without consequence, but he will also be financially rewarded for doing so.
In any case, both are sometimes enraged.
The more tenaciously a belief is maintained, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, the more difficult it is to let go of the idea in question. The proponent of betting systems does not want to accept that, given enough time, the system would almost always lose…and the alcoholic just does not want to believe that he is not an alcoholic. I get what you’re saying…I despise being incorrect about anything as a matter of principle.
Suffering from depression
While this is great news for the Betting Systems Advocate, it is not such great news for the alcoholic, since they now have the option of perhaps bypassing this stage!
Just by making the decision that you will not test your system in casinos, you will avoid losing a lot of money and will be able to go straight on to bargaining, you will be able to bypass depression entirely.
Here’s a great deal: You seem to believe that games aren’t the “Real World,” but you negotiate with yourself in order to convince yourself that they are. The alternative is to make an agreement that you will accept the outcomes of simulations, or to employ a random number generator and establish the starting boundary conditions in such a way that they resemble game play as closely as possible.
If you perform any of these activities, which require either no (or just a little amount) of real money, you will discover that the betting method is ineffective. The system will ultimately fail on every single occasion.
Fortunately, all that happened was that your view was proved incorrect by more than just someone fighting with you and hurling mathematics in your direction. That’s a whole lot better than having your viewpoint proved completely incorrect AND incurring a significant financial loss as a result.
Depression CAN be prevented nearly entirely if you follow these steps. The only exception would be if just being incorrect caused you to go into a minor melancholy, but even that would not be nearly as debilitating as being wrong AND losing a significant amount of money.
The Art of Bargaining
“It is not going to happen by some miracle.”
If your betting method were to continue to work for a statistically significant length of time, it wouldn’t quite qualify as a miracle, but you’d have to be so far to the right of the bell curve that you may as well just call it that. What’s the harm in trying? Besides, you’ve previously shown that you aren’t too interested with formal mathematical terminology in the first place.
Even gambling may be a good deal if you don’t have a problem with it to begin with, which is the case for most people who do. You can say, “I am going to gamble using my system, even though I understand that my system will almost certainly result in my losing…because the mere act of gambling at a negative expectation game will almost certainly result in my losing…because the mere act of gambling at a negative expectation game will almost certainly result in my losing…”
There’s nothing wrong with utilizing a strategy to play negative expectation gambling if it makes the experience more enjoyable for you. It’s meant to be enjoyable, after all. If you believe that slots are more entertaining than Craps (in and of itself), there is nothing wrong with playing slots instead of Craps (in and of itself). If you play a game with a negative expectation, you will lose in the long term, regardless of the strategy you are using. It only becomes detrimental if you are neglecting other areas of your life or if you are losing money that you cannot afford to lose.
In my view, using a betting strategy does not inherently increase the likelihood of any of those two outcomes. Believing in a betting system, on the other hand, may be beneficial.
If you are participating in a game with a negative expectation, you may anticipate to lose money to the casino with each and every move. If you continue to play the game for an extended period of time, you will eventually win.